Tuesday’s Blog Results: The suggested short @ 4263.75 stopped out. The Globex session prior was “perfect” (see chart).

Quick Tip: Trade at night.      

Taking a break from the Trade Plan today to show why it’s so important to trade futures if you’re a day worker.

Most futures markets are open 23 hours. They start at 6 PM ET. This gives day workers the opportunity to reap the benefits of day trading. The evening session is called the Globex. It trades differently than the day session. Different players, less volume, easier trading. Every afternoon at 5:15 PM ET our team gets a detailed trade plan for the upcoming Globex session.

The chart above shows what a “perfect” Globex session can look like. Four trades were triggered and they collectively produced 148.25 points. What’s even more impressive is how little price moved against each of these trades.

Reality: You didn’t get all 148.25 points. Why not?...

Monday’s Blog Results: The suggested short level @ 4322.00 caught the top of the market and ran for 124.00 points at the close. How much did you bank?

Quick Tip: Trade Plan Part 6

You’ve made five trade plan decisions so far, time devotion, style, capital investment, asset class and strategy selection. Next is risk management.

There are seven main risk management rules you should incorporate in your trade plan:

1. Use stops, know your tolerance.
2. Breakeven trades are winners.
3. Don’t quit.
4. Trade multiple contracts/shares.
5. Move your stop tighter.
6. Diversify. 
7. Document, review, get present time edge.

Too much information for a blog post. For details on all these rules watch this video, take notes, email me with questions: [email protected].

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:

Short Level: Sell 4263.75 stop 4268.50.

Long Level: Buy 4140.75 stop 4135.75.  

Trade well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Tired of trading alone? Need more quality setups?...

Friday’s Blog Results: The suggested buy level and the subsequent breakout lower both failed. What you didn’t see were two other immediate losers that our team experienced. Losing streaks and drawdowns happen. In tomorrow’s blog we’ll propose some risk management rules to help you weather these storms. 

Quick Tip: Trade Plan Part 5 

You’ve made four decisions so far, time devotion, style, capital investment, and asset class. It’s time to think about your strategies. 

Dozens of different methods of trading can be profitable. If you doubt this statement read any of Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizards” books. In fact, you should read his books before you finish your trade plan. You’ll get plenty of ideas. 

In each book he interviews top traders from around the world. Dozens of them. What you’ll find is that almost every trader has a different take on how to trade.

Some...

Thursday’s Blog Results: The suggested short pegged the top of the day session and ran for 20 points to the next level. Aggressive traders saw this trade run for 70 points and close the day with 50!

Quick Tip: Trade Plan Part 4

You’ve made three decisions so far, time devotion, style, and capital investment. It’s time to pick your primary asset class.  

Position Traders (six figure account, several hours available every month): Stocks, Options, Bonds, Forex. The stock market is the familiar to most and there are plenty of research resources available at modest cost to help pick and manage your portfolio.

Dividends are a great benefit. Using options to buy (cash-secured puts) and sell (covered calls) your positions will add to your ROI with no added risk.

Most stocks move with the overall market. The adage “a rising tide floats all boats” applies. This means you may be diversified within the stock market owning different sectors, but you’re...

Wednesday’s Blog Results: Neither suggested level triggered.

Quick Tip: Trade Plan Part 3

You’ve made two decisions so far, time devotion and style. You’ll treat this like a business so let’s be professional and examine the startup capital required.

Technology: Computer, printer, cell phone, back-up power supply, reliable high-speed internet access, WIFI hotspot (backup internet access). If you’re day trading you’ll need multiple monitors, the fastest available internet access, and a hard wire connection, not WIFI. You probably have this technology already but if not, go shopping. The software you’ll use will probably be provided for free by your broker. If not, consider Ninja, eSignal, or MetaStock.

Education: Learning trading is not like riding a bike. You’ll need continuing education, coaching, and support. This investment is worth it at almost any price. Why? Because without it you’ll likely lose far more making mistakes you...

Tuesday’s Blog Results: Both suggested entries stopped out within minutes of each other. That was a good test to see if your risk number is appropriate! Read the January 21, 2022 blog on how to find your risk number.

Quick Tip: Style

How much time are you able to devote to your trading? That was your homework from yesterday. The answer guides you to the next step in refreshing your trading plan: Style.

Your broad choices are day, swing, or position trader.

If you have a modest amount of time available, 6 – 8+ hours a month, position trading could be your choice. These are trades you will usually keep open for months, maybe years. You’re looking to catch a long-term trend and in many cases dividend income.

If you have more time, 6 – 8+ hours a week, swing trading could be your choice. These are trades you will usually keep open for days, maybe weeks. You’re looking for short-term movement attempting to catch the “swings” of price up and down....

Friday’s Blog Results: The suggested short stopped out for a 4.25-point loss (per contract). The long didn’t trigger.

Quick Tip: Contrary is good.

The Wall Street definition of a correction in the market is a 10% drop from the high. All indexes but the Dow did that last week. A possible short-covering rally late in the week repaired the situation.

What’s next is anyone’s guess but looking at evidence from past performance can be useful. Here are some interesting S&P statistics that may help you with your long-term portfolio plans (day traders don’t care about this).

In the past 33 corrections the S&P went on to Bear territory 7 times. The other 79% of the time it reversed to new highs.

The average correction was -15%. We hit that last week. The average Bear market was -36%.

Moving over to the Dow, in the past 29 events of global crisis (think wars, terrorism, Covid, Ukraine), the average drop was 11.6%. After 3 months it was up 11.3%, 6 months...

Wednesday’s Blog Results: The suggested short level @ 4575.00 ran for 16.75 points with only 1 tick of adverse move. Don’t you feel more confident when you’re on a winning streak? (Careful…)

Today’s Lesson: Abundance.

Success starts with your orientation toward life. In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he reveals the two orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.
2. Playing not to lose.

What’s the difference?

People who have a positive attitude packed with a view of abundant opportunities willing to overcome challenges, grow and risk for gain are “Playing to Win.”

Conversely, people who need to remain in their comfort zone, looking for the “easy way,” have a skeptical, negative attitude and don’t see opportunities clearly are “Playing Not to Lose.”

Successful traders Play to Win. One key component of their formula is the mindset of...

Monday’s Blog Results: The suggested buy level @ 4476.50 delivered a 38-point runup. How much did you keep?

Today’s Lesson: How to get “real” courage.

Hopefully you’re following a rule-based trade plan (if not, get one or stop trading). If so, you’ve probably experienced that trade setup that just didn’t look or feel right. The rules say “BUY” and price is plunging fast. All you can think about is that stop getting filled instantly and you’re underwater again.

On the chart above, notice the price action just before the level was touched. Just before entry. The steep and fast move down. And you’re supposed to buy at this number that some guy (me) told you was a good turning point.

Would it take “courage” to enter that trade? Being courageous sounds too risky to me. I get mental images of danger ahead and I’m supposed to plow right through and prevail… without pain?

Confidence is the...

Wednesday’s Blog Results: The “alternative” long entry worked like a charm for a quick 14.75-point run. How much did you bank?  

Today’s Trading Tip: The weather report.

Years ago, the weather report was a big joke. Especially in Michigan where I grew up. Rarely did the forecast hold. Today, the technology exists to accurately forecast the weather. You wouldn’t think of washing your car today until you checked for foul weather. You wouldn’t blindly carry your umbrella every day either.

Forecasting the market has come a long way, too. It’s not nearly as good as the weather report but it can be helpful. The forecasting tools you can use for the market give you edge in probabilities. Not certainties. But that’s OK. Wouldn’t you rather have some probabilities guiding your trading than going in blind?

Our trading team follows a detailed forecast for both the day and Globex sessions. They are different so the extra work is...