Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4396.50 bounced 11.25 points favorable.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4339.25 stop 4334.00. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -79 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: PMI Flash MFG/Services @ 9:45. Treasuries yield kisses 16-year high.

Quick Tip: Optimizing Stops

Limiting losses is critical for success in trading. Stop Loss orders are one important part of your risk management plan.

Where you place your Stop Loss will define your position size. The first step in optimizing your stop is to vary it with market volatility. That will obviously vary your position size. 

The second step is to log the MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) for every trade setup, whether you took the trade or not. MAE is simply how far against your...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No turning points suggested on FOMC day. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4396.50 stop 4390.75. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +7 to -79 with all major world markets very bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Interest rates will remain high, Xi shakes up his team with no explanation, UAW strike continues. 

Quick Tip: Improving Your Plan

Your trade plan probably started out simple. You had rules for entry, exit, risk, position size, candidate selection, and some filters for changing market conditions. The historical performance was positive. Great start. 

Once you started live trading you likely encountered trade setups that didn’t make sense at the time....

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4467.00 stopped out by a few ticks before running for 29.75 points. Re-frame your thinking: the level worked, the noise in the market at the time required a bit more risk. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

No trades on FOMC day. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 with Asia Bearish and the west Bullish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC announcement @ 14:00 and press conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Trading Econ

Economic news, FOMC announcements and press conferences in particular, usually create excess volatility in the stock indexes. These extreme moves can be a blessing or a curse. 

Assuming you’re tracking catalysts in your trade documentation process, finding potential edge is easy. 

Looking at the FOMC-day...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4539.50 stopped out. The breakout short ran for 37 points to the session close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4467.00 stop 4463.00. Short 4543.75 stop 4548.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +50 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Waiting on FOMC. 

Quick Tip: Confronting Reality

How is your trading going? That’s a question you should be asking yourself on a regular basis. Think hard, be critical, answer honestly. And don’t worry about talking to yourself, we all learned that’s OK during Covid lockdown. :-)

What you’ll find when you question your results critically are some trailheads for improvement. It might be as subtle as the quality of your record keeping or the consistency of your...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4543.75 stopped out instantly, buying the breakout was the right idea, but spiky price action stopped out the trade.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4539.50 stop 4535.00. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) inches up from +43 to +50 in a Bullish world on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. UAW strikes. 

Quick Tip: The Redline

It’s not common to get very fast and big moves in your direction. It sure feels good when you do though. And that’s the rub. 

The adrenaline of the win, the ego of being right, and the vision of another wide range candle in your direction all instill greed. You simply don’t want the feeling to end!

...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4499.00 stop 4495.50. Short 4543.75 stop 4548.25 (and if failed, buy the breakout at 4547.00 stop 4543.00). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from -43 to +43 in a return to Bullish sentiment.   

Catalysts: PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Tech should get a boost from the chip maker ARM’s IPO. 

Quick Tip: Night Moves 

If you’re working days and wish you could day trade here’s some great news. 

The result of a significant study on market returns done by Haghani, Ragulin & Dewey called “Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies” will solve your dilemma.  

In a nutshell, nearly all the return earned in the S&P over...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (watch for slippage potential @ 8:30 when CPI releases): 

Buy 4467.00 stop 4463.00. Short 4543.75 stop 4548.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -43 with all major world markets Bearish. Europe will still be open when CPI releases so this outlook may change.  

Catalysts: CPI (core will have the greater impact) @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:01. Federal Budget Balance @ 14:00.     

Quick Tip: Ask Yourself

Today is a big day for the stock market. The CPI (inflation) results come out at 8:30 ET. We’ve seen relatively narrow range days lately. It’s almost a certainty price will break out into a trend. Up or down.

You should be asking yourself how you’re going to respond. Being proactive and planning will get you the calm...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered, both levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4499.00 stop 4495.50. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +21 to -21 in a world of mixed sentiment and lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Waiting on CPI tomorrow.    

Quick Tip: Time Horizon

More importantly for swing and position trading than day trading, knowing your time horizon in advance is critical. The decision on how long to hold a trade is your “expectation management.” 

One strategy our team trades uses significant insider buying (stocks) to forecast price direction. Plenty of research has been done to back up this thesis. No one knows more about the likely future performance of a company than those...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered as the rollover to the December contract gapped above the suggested short @ 4496.25 last night. The breakout from that level is still open with 18 points of gain currently. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4499.00 stop 4495.50. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from -64 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Waiting on CPI Wednesday.   

Quick Tip: Bulls > Bears on 9/11

It’s hard to believe the 9/11 attacks were 22 years ago. I still have vivid memories of “not” trading that day. 

Sitting on a 100% long swing trading portfolio of stocks and watching the news would seem doubly bothersome. Truth is I didn’t think much about the money or...