Tuesday’s Blog Levels: Neither trade triggered.

Quick Tip: Embrace change.

Successful investors and traders alike have a rule-based strategy that provides them a financial advantage or “edge.” A combination of fundamental and technical analysis are typical components. Another analysis you can add to the recipe is investor “mood” commonly called sentiment. In other words, do market participants feel bullish, bearish or neutral about the future?

While every region and country has a unique economy, given the volume of international trade those individual economies are part of a larger “global” economy. The U.S. economy is the largest in the world but more importantly for us it is also the last market traded on the daily clock. This allows U.S. traders a glimpse at how the Asian and European markets are trading before our stock market opens.

Many years ago, I developed a simple indicator for world sentiment, which I call the World Index. The...

Monday’s Blog Levels: The short idea never triggered and the market opened below the long idea.

Quick Tip: Powerful Habit

Do you know anyone who read the Bible, Quran, Torah, or Vedas only once? (Sorry if I missed your faith but you’ll get the point in a moment).

You read anything enlightening once… “Interesting! I didn’t know that. I’m definitely following this advice!”

Result: A few days of spotty application. Your experience is now called “history.” You didn’t change.

You read anything enlightening a few times… “I’m getting this. I see how it’s changing me for the better. I feel calmer, more intelligent, motivated. Wow!”

Result: You have some new habits. You’re seriously applying. Your experience is now called “real.” You’re changing.

You re-read anything enlightening regularly… “I knew that and forgot it! Studying this needs to be on my calendar....

Monday’s Blog Results: Neither level triggered. Team members saw the Globex session behave very well. If you’re not trading the better, more productive Globex session, you’re missing the easier money. (see chart).

Quick Tip: Be proactive, not reactive.

With 40+ million copies sold and a release date in 1989 you’re likely to have read Stephen Covey’s “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.” If not, do it now. It is excellent advice and timeless.

Habit #1 says be proactive, not reactive. With so many different styles of trading, you know there are strategies that you can “set and forget,” and strategies that require real-time scrutiny. Proactive vs. Reactive.

Our team of traders do both because we run 4 different strategies (plenty to pick from… sometimes it’s like Thanksgiving dinner). Our volume profile, supply/demand, and SPX strategies can be “set and forget.” Our volatility reversal strategy requires...

Friday’s Blog Results: The suggested long never triggered but the short @ 4412 ran for 19.75 points.

Quick Tip: Stop-n-start.

All trading strategies have drawdowns (a protracted losing streak). The challenge is trading through it. You can’t stop thinking that it may “never come back” or churn for an extended period. Then you get FOMO and think if you stop now it will roar back and you’ll miss the gain. Obviously, these thoughts are destructive. Don’t go there.

What you should do is have Stop-n-start rules to follow. These are rules that tell you when to stop trading the strategy and when, if ever, to start up again. This will take the emotion out of the process. Apply these rules to the performance of individual strategies, not your whole trading account.

Here’s an example of a rule set (see graphic above):

1. Track the equity curve of the strategy.
2. Measure the drawdowns and select the longest you can tolerate.
3. The next time the equity drops...

Thursday’s Blog Results: The suggested short @ 4375.50 stopped out.

Quick Tip: Do something.    

In the past several days you’ve read several blog posts about the components of a proper trade plan. If you haven’t finished creating (or updating) your plan with these 7 critical components, let me help you.

Join me on Saturday, March 19th at 10 AM ET for a FREE, LIVE online mini course, “Ultimate Trade Plan.”

Click here now to see the syllabus and reserve your seat. We’re limited to 100 traders so do this now.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:

Short Level: Sell 4412.00 stop 4417.25.

Long Level: Buy 4358.75 stop 4354.00.

Trade well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Tired of trading alone? Need more quality setups? Join our team of great traders and accelerate your performance. Copy down this coupon code WINTER2022 and save 100 per month for life on your membership. Click here for FREE video training and details.  

Wednesday’s Blog Results: Neither suggested entry triggered.

Quick Tip: Change is good.

Today’s Lesson: Keep an open mind.

Pandemic. War. Earthquake. I guess it’s over. Bad news comes in three’s right? I thought about an article I read a while back. Five Wall Street traders were commenting on how to deal with disruption in the markets. There were plenty of differences between them including chosen asset class, style, strategy, all the typical things.

There was one huge commonality, though. They all stressed keeping an open mind. Be willing to change. Markets change. Technologies change. Laws change.

Change is not always easy, though. We can get into a comfort zone and not want to leave. But we must if we’re going to grow our trading skills.

Here’s an example of why it’s so important. About 2 years ago, I launched The Daily Market Forecast. We started trading the S&P futures using one strategy with a fixed rule set.

We’re fortunate...

Monday’s Blog Results: The long level ran for +46.50 points but the tight stop ended it @ +9.00.

Quick Tip: Growing Up.

You should have a rules-based trading plan with proven edge. If not, stop trading and get one.

Your trade plan is not a static document. It starts that way then grows with you and the changes in the markets you trade. As you gain experience you’ll tweak your trading plan. Some of the rules you have will be dependent on present time market conditions. Think of them as “If – Then” statements.

Yesterday’s winner is a great example. Looking at the chart you’ll see that the volume level held all morning and offered a 46.50-point runner. The suggested stop had you out with something less than 9 points. No bueno.

Your plan may have a stop placement rule that is ineffective when market volatility is extreme. Like now. Our team adjusts the maximum stop distance based on present time volatility. We used data going back several years...

Friday’s Blog Results: Friday’s Blog Results: The buy was only good for 5.75 pts. Prior level worked for 15.75.        

Quick Tip: Multi beats binary.

Trading one strategy is a binary approach. You win or lose on each trade. Since all trading strategies have their winning streaks and drawdowns, trading one strategy can be difficult to handle psychologically when the losses pile up.

Last week our Volume Profile strategy had a very rough time. The binary trader will blame the war causing a character change in the market. True enough. But knowing the cause of your losses is not enough.

If the cause was you, changing your behavior is the solution. If the cause was out of your control, like the war, all you can do is quit or book losses.

Seasoned traders understand that markets regularly change character. Trading multiple uncorrelated strategies is a balanced approach. Last week, while one strategy we trade was a sizable net loser, the other...

Thursday’s Blog Results: Neither suggested level triggered.

Quick Tip: Second Place Rocks!

The volume levels suggested in this blog are two of the many on our charts. They are chosen for you, and I think they are the “best” for that day. But I’m not always right. In fact, I’m probably wrong half the time. Kind of like trades.

Which is why Second Place Rocks! The level that produced the winner shorting 4257.25 was a “tertiary” volume level. They represent a significant spike in volume but the minimum for our trading purposes. They work fine, though. Yesterday’s ran for 10-points.

Here’s how this helps you: Create a “grading” system for your trade setups. Make it simple so you can instantly decide. Capture the results data for all trades, even those you didn’t take. One of the data points you’ll keep is the “grade.” Once you have at least 100 trade results for each “grade” you can...

Wednesday’s Blog Results: Neither suggested trade triggered.

Quick Tip: You need therapy.

Trading is more psychology than math. Greed, fear, hope, and other emotions negatively affect our performance. Dr. Woody Johnson, trader psychologist, is our guest blogger today (next post). Enjoy!

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:

Short Level: Sell 4274.25 stop 4280.50.

Long Level: Buy 4193.50 stop 4187.75 (same as yesterday).

Trade well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Tired of trading alone? Need more quality setups? Join our team of great traders and accelerate your performance. Copy down this coupon code WINTER2022 and save 100 per month for life on your membership. Click here for FREE video training and details.