Yesterday’s results: The suggested short didn’t trigger. No long was suggested. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5889.75 stop 5885.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -21 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Barr @ 10:00, Cook @ 11:00 & Bowman @ 12:15. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. NVDA earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Rightness

We have an innate desire to be right. Being wrong is the equivalent of failure. But in trading this shouldn’t matter. We obviously can’t control the market or perfectly predict the future. The best we can do is decide in advance how much profit or loss we’ll accept. 

The late Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the Zone, said "When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment,...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5036.25 was only good for a 6-point scalp. The short level didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5895.50 stop 5589.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -21 to -14 with all major world markets neutral to Bearish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Goolsbee & NAHB Housing Market Index @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Behave Yourself

Imagine starting in trading without any historical information. No price charts. No patterns to study. No economic information. No annual reports. What would you use to determine if it was time to buy or sell? 

Thankfully, we needn’t dwell on that question at all. We have incredible historical information available that we can research for potential edge in our trading. However, the fact is that historical information is not a perfect predictor of the future. We can’t...

Friday’s results: Buying 5908.50 on the breakout was only good for a 4-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5867.75 stop 5864.00. Short 5864.75 stop 5868.50 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +43 to -36 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: FOMC Speakers; Logan @ 8:55, Kashkari @ 13:00. IMF Meeting starts. 

Quick Tip: Belief #1

Success at trading, at anything, is formulaic. No one stays successful at anything without a proven formula to follow. What’s yours? 

You may think it’s your trade plan. You may think you need the hottest strategies, the best broker, more risk capital, and better sources of information. All that surely helps but the foundation for your success starts within you. It’s your belief. 

Do you honestly believe you can become a top-notch trader? Or are you thinking of giving it a...

Friday’s results: No trades triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5823.25 stop 5820.00. Short 5820.75 stop 5824.00 if price retraces up from below.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from zero to +21 with mixed sentiment on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Kashkari @ 9:00, Waller @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Performance Dips

Dedicated traders devote plenty of attention to reviewing their performance, just like professional athletes do. Sometimes we’ll see a dip in our results. Our equity curve will be flattening. We’ll ask ourselves “Is it the market or me?” 

In his excellent book Atomic Habits author James Clear named chapter 20 The Downside of Creating Good Habits. Darn good title! 

Here’s the gist of it: once we practice something enough to become skilled and automatic we become less aware of improving it. We stop looking for the mistakes....

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5745.00 stop 5740.00. Short 5797.75 stop 5801.25

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +42 to +33 with most major world markets Bullish but the S&P futures are not participating. China reopens tonight.

Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 13:00, Kashkari @ 13:50. Consumer Credit @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Keep On

Every successful person in trading and in life has gone through barriers and setbacks to achieve their success. 

In trading everyone deals with losing streaks, drawdowns, unfilled winning trades, slippage, internet outages, criticism from family and friends, and more. 

While there are many changes you can make to improve your trade plan and behavior there is one underlying quality you must have. Persistence. 

“I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” Thomas Edison

“I have failed...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5701.50 stop 5695.75. No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -40 to -17 with sentiment mixed leaning Bearish. China closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. S&P Services PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders, Fed’s Schmid @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 10:40. Middle East tension.

Quick Tip: Obscure Biases

Once you’re introduced to the psychological side of trading you find that we all have biases that affect the quality of our decision making. 

Some are well known like Outcome Bias (judging the trade to be good because it was a winner, not because you executed properly) and Recency Bias (the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events). 

I became fascinated with biases and wanted to search for obscure examples....

Yesterday’s results: The short entry at 5808.00 triggered minutes before the close and failed. Day traders would pass on the trade, swing traders took the loss. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5790.75 stop 5785.00. No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +30 with sentiment mostly Bullish. China/HK closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: S&P Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI, Prices, Construction Spending & JOLTS @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:00, Cook @ 11:10.

Quick Tip: Biorhythms

I’m not sure if there is truth to the biorhythm theory that we are affected by three cycles: physical, emotional, and intellectual. But there is no question our performance at just about anything cycles. Winning, losing, flatlining. 

I watched the Detroit Lions quarterback, Jared Goff set a record yesterday completing ALL of his 18 passes in a rout over the Seattle Seahawks. Last...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5781.50 stop 5775.75. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +86 with all major world markets very Bullish on China’s commitment to stimulus. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims & Durable Goods, @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Powell speaks (pre-recorded) @ 9:20. Yellen speaks @ 11:15. Multiple other Fed speakers all day. 

Quick Tip: Motivation

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be motivated. There will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, failures, and rejections. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. But how? Find your unsatisfied need. You...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5698 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5630.00 stop 5626.25 (filtered out during FOMC release between 14:00 and 15:00). No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +33 to +8 with sentiment mixed. Waiting on FOMC. 

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Rate Decision @ 14:00, press conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Don’t Retire

You’ve probably heard or read the best ways to have a long and fulfilling retirement: Exercise regularly, sleep more, eat healthy, drink moderately, stop smoking, and minimize stress. 

Here’s one thing you might not have heard about: Connect with people who have the same purpose. It turns out that loneliness is a killer. 

Living in Florida I’m frequently asked when out socially if I’m retired. I’m not and never will be, in the...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5422.25 just missed picking the bottom of a wild session, offering a 4.75-point scalp before stopping out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5484.75 stop 5480.75. Short 5656.25 stop 5660.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -21 to +57 with most major world markets firmly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PPI, Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-year bond auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Self-Serving Bias

Trading is more psychological than mathematical. Although the quants might disagree, if you study other successful traders you’ll see they do agree. 

Aside from our human problems about “winning is good, losing is bad” and “being right is good, being wrong is bad,” we have biases to contend with. There are plenty. 

One bias I discovered recently while reading Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions by Annie Duke, arguably the best tournament poker female who...