Trade Aptitude
Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered on a narrow range day. They remain on the chart for today.
Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4081.00 stop 4076.00. Short 4146.00 stop 4151.75.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -57 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.
Catalysts: International Trade @ 8:30. Powell speaks @ 12:00. Higher interest rate peak possible.
Quick Tip: Outcome Bias
Caring about whether your current trade is a winner or loser is counterproductive. It encourages emotional reaction. You should be trading a strategy that has proven edge and that gives you the probability of the outcome over many trades. No reason to be concerned about any one or even any series of trades outcomes.
But we like to “kind of know” what’s likely to happen, don’t we?
Here’s an example of how you can get comfortable with outcomes: Our intraday trend strategy has a history of 1,123 trades in various market conditions to date. It produced a winner 60% of the time with winners 20% greater than losers.
Sounds good but what about extreme winning and losing streaks? You’d like to understand what to expect to have the confidence to persist when they occur.
Losing 3 in a row happened 52 times, winning 3 in a row happened 80 times. The worst losing streak was 7 (once). The best winning streak was 8 (once). Knowing these stats should kill your outcome bias.
Disclosure: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, as you know.
Our team day-trades multiple strategies with edge. At least one should suit your style and personality. Join the team, learn the strategies, and trade live with us daily for 30 days. Money back if you’re not blown away!
Trade Fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk