Trade Aptitude

Results of Monday's Best S&P Turning Points: The short @ 4002.25 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 4123.50 stop 4128.25. Buy 3981.00 stop 3976.50. 

Globex View: Trending up. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -36 to +36 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. Historically price will close above the open 55% of the time. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. SBF is in jail (duh!). 

Quick Tip: Futures Bookie? 

Sports betting is generally risk-free for the Bookie. They adjust the odds as the bets roll in to stay “delta neutral” (to steal a trading definition). 

The CME has an interesting product called an Event Contract. They look just like sports bets. For example, this morning you could bet that the S&P Futures will close above 4025. It’s at 4045 at 7:20 ET. You’ll pay $11.75 to take that bet and earn $8.25 if you’re right. Conversely, you can fade that bet for $9.75 and earn $10.25 if you’re right. 

Not my cup of tea for trading however there may be a “tell” here. The pricing and location of the S&P bets say that 4025 is a level of importance. You have negative reward to risk agreeing and positive reward to risk disagreeing.  

I’ll capture these levels daily for the S&P futures and report back to you afterward if I find any actionable rule. 

The prices move in real time. You can see these bets for 10 different futures markets. Click here to see them. 

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk 

P.S. Feel free to share this blog with all your trading buddies.