The Daily Market Forecast... Trade at night
Today’s Lesson: Trade at night.
With 23-hour futures markets for the most liquid contracts, anyone can find time around their work schedule to trade. Our research (and experience) shows repeatedly that trading the S&P futures from 6 PM ET until the cash market open at 9:30 AM ET is better than the day session.
Here's a trade from last night to analyze (see chart).
- Price opened within the day’s high-volume level.
- Trading below signals a short entry.
- Ultimate profit target would be the next volume level @ 44.25
- Prior day low is a typical stall/bounce price, chose to exit there.
OK, that’s all easy enough. My point in sharing this is twofold:
First, while I entered the trade at 6:04 PM ET, the final exit occurred at 3:08 AM ET while I was sleeping. Now THAT is effective use of your time!
Second, if you don’t have the time or skill to create a Globex trading plan with EDGE then let’s get you started!
Join me tomorrow at 10:00 AM ET for Lookback (5). In this 90-minute Zoom session we will review in detail every trade setup during this week from The Daily Market Forecast trading room. S&P, Gold, Oil, winners, losers, break-evens. All of them. Be curious, ask questions, find out what REALLY matters when it comes to finding EDGE and selecting trades.
Click here to reserve your seat.
For Fri 211029 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
The Mortgage Payment trade is ON for long equities (SPY calls) and UNLIKELY for short bonds (TLT puts).
Globex Review: Sublime. One trade, entered at 18:04 ET ran for 18+ points and is still open.
Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed leaning bearish. Stats lean LONG. BUY the dip? Jump on the downtrend? Willing to trade either direction under Alt1 stop movement until a trend is identified. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading ES/CL/GC using Vol Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Looking for credit spread candidates after the open tips the direction.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4578.50/4582.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4571/4577.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index: (+100/-100) REMAINS at -21 in a world of mixed somewhat bearish sentiment (longs should outperform shorts).
Catalysts: Employment Cost Index & Personal Income @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. AAPL & AMZN missed and are dragging the market down. Inflation worries persist.
Trends: 60 min DOWN (forming a descending triangle), daily UP (longs should outperform shorts).
Inside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening -0.50%. $TRIN XMA stable at 1.13. Long term outlook stays long.
Globex: The range of 20.50 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 36 points on a LEVELING ATR of 40.88. Prior forecast around 31 points, actual 30.75.
Trade Well,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.