The Daily Market Forecast... Time to Sell?

For Thu 210909 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Gorgeous session with a short trade from 4509.50 running 24-points and still open. Only 3-ticks adverse move. Nice comeback from yesterday. 

Day Session Analysis: Bearish sentiment continues. Mixed signals. Long term outlook reverses quickly to HOLD. Looking to trade in either direction with good reward/risk.  Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today to start a ladder (leaning toward Bear Calls).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4509.50/4513.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4507.75/4509.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -29 to -57 in an increasingly bearish world (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.83. Teammate Thomas B. observes that stocks usually follow oil (sometimes with a delay) but NOT the other way around. The Globex charts show oil trending up and the S&P range bound, suggesting a move up. JY is starting to move down, reinforcing that view.

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 11:00. Fear in the air over slowing economic growth and how the central banks will address it. ECB Press Conference @ 8:30. China tech-crackdown re-ignites with a freeze on new online games and instructions for tech leaders to ease their “solitary focus” on profits. YIKES!

Trends: 60 min UP, daily DOWN (mixed view on edge).

Chart: Low outside day. Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit.  Opening -0.25% (long edge). $TRIN XMA rebounds from 0.88 to 1.02 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 26.25 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 40 points on a LEVELING ATR of 26.90. Prior forecast around 42 points, actual 28.25. Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.