The Daily Market Forecast... near wins.

Friday’s Blog Results: The suggested buy level @ 4454.25 offered 8.50 points before reversing. The suggested short level failed by only 5 ticks and then plunged 32.25 points to the close.

Today’s Lesson: Near wins.

As you review the trades from Friday you’ll likely pause on the short entry, which failed by only 5 ticks before offered a sizable winner.

Was the stop too tight? Was the entry too soon? You’re thinking about how you could have gotten into the trade.

Now if you’re a discretionary trader with no evidence of edge, just intuition and experience, that may be the correct review process.

Our team is rule-based. We work with statistically relevant evidence to make trading decisions. Pondering the reasons how we could have “made” it a winner is a waste of time. Specifically, we know that our entry and stop were correct probability-wise.

The review process then becomes “reframing.” Taking a negative and making it positive. Ask yourself, “More or less, did that volume level work?” Yes! It picked the top of a 90-point range day and triggered a 32-point run.

Granted, it’s not money in our account. But did your confidence in the strategy get stronger?

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:

Short Level: Sell 4548.00 stop 4552.75.

Long Level: Buy 4476.50 stop 4470.75.  

Trade well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Tired of trading alone? Need more quality setups? Learn how our team-based approach can accelerate your trading performance. Click here for FREE video training.