The Daily Market Forecast... Lesson Day

Today’s Lesson: Documentation & Review are key.

Rather than wax-on about today’s subject I’ll point you to a Zoom recording from Saturday on this subject. Lots of lessons were shared in a new format I’m testing… reviewing all the prior week trades from our trading room. Go to https://www.thedailymarketforecast.com/video-lessons.

For Mon 211011 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Missed filling a fabulous 35+ point short by one tick. The opposing level was suggested for exits only saving two losers.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mildly BULLISH elsewhere. We are down. Stats are mixed so taking trades in either direction mindful that the holiday range may be tighter than forecast.   Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Thinking credit spreads might be easier today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4388.25/4394. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4387.25/4388 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) EASES from +36 to +21 in a mixed but mildly bullish world (shorts should outperform longs). The S&P tanked from the Globex open yet Asia was bullish and Europe mixed… domestic disturbance?

Catalysts: Holiday for everything except the stock market. Economic growth concerns. Rising energy prices.

Trends: 60 min DOWN leg of a range, daily DOWN (longs outperform shorts).

Low outside day: Win% and Stop% remain normal, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening around -0.40%. $TRIN XMA up to 0.91. Long term outlook stays long.

Globex: The range of 35.75 suggests a day session range around 50 points on a FALLING ATR of 60.54. Prior forecast around 36 points, actual 27.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.