The Daily Market Forecast... Lesson Day

Today’s Lesson: No FOMO

Seasoned traders spend time on the review process. They compare their results (behavior) to their plan. This is an excellent way to improve incrementally and get more disciplined.

There is a “downside” you’ll need to handle, though. Since you can’t take every good trade every day and night you’ll find in your review process that you MISS LOTS of great trades. It gets worse when you happen to be in a drawdown and you’re seeing the losers on your statement and the winners absent.

How do you feel about that? You may develop Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO). And that will likely lead to overtrading and at the least, loss of confidence.

Here is a simple reframing trick that should set you straight. Instead of focusing on all the winning trades you missed, start counting the losing trades you didn’t take. Aren’t those really “winners”?

For Wed 211020 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: The levels were congested and not worth trading. Nothing good triggered.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed but price is ignoring the issues. Stats say shorts will have a modest advantage. Willing to trade either direction for now but mindful that we’re melting up to a new high (which is likely very soon).  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Looks like a good day for OTM credit spreads (not expecting any big move either way).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4505/4508.50. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4501.5/4506 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) DROPS from +36 to +21 in a low volatility world of mixed sentiment (shorts should modestly outperform longs).

Catalysts: EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. Numerous Fed speakers from noon on. Beige Book @ 14:00. The market is ignoring economic challenges and melting up over solid corporate earnings. So, what do you think will happen when earnings season is over?

Trends: 60 min RANGE, daily UP (shorts should modestly outperform longs).

High outside day (just a little bit): Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit.  Opening flat. $TRIN XMA eases to 0.93. Long term outlook stays long.

Globex: The range of 13.25 suggests a day session range around 27 points on a FALLING ATR of 52.25. Prior forecast around 46 points, actual 28.50.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.