The Daily Market Forecast... Lesson Day
Today’s Lesson: Get a night job. The futures markets are open 23 hours a day. You probably knew that. What you might NOT know is that the Globex session (from 18:00 to 9:30 ET) trades differently than the day session (9:30 to 16:15 ET). It trades BETTER (just much slower, but you’ll be sleeping anyway so who cares?).
Here’s 5 compelling reasons why you should take on this “night job…”
- The Globex session is less noisy meaning your stops will be filled less often.
- The best W/L ratio and highest profit time periods are from 18:00 to 9:30 ET. You can trade until noon, but the results will be less profitable.
- Breakout trades in the first 30 minutes of the Globex are incredible. Reversals are not.
- There are 10 “sessions” every week. 5 during the day, 5 Globex. Of those 10, the TOP 4 profit-wise are Globex.
- You can set/forget your trades before you retire for the night.
If you’re thinking “I don’t have the time to analyze the market and KNOW where to place those Globex trades” then you’re in luck. We provide our members a complete trading plan for the Globex session every market day 45 minutes before the open at 18:00 ET. Email me for a sample: [email protected].
For Thu 210930 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: Another great Globex session. One takeable trade running for 18+ points.
Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed. Stats are mixed. Jobless Claims & GDP will set the early trend. Taking trades in either direction. Downside moves should be furious. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile (that said, Thursday has been a very profitable day recently). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for SPXW credit spread ladders.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4365.75/4370.25. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4359/4359.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index: (+100/-100) DIPS from +21 to ZERO in a world of mixed and low volatility sentiment (no edge).
Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Inflation fears persist.
Trends: 60 min DOWN (a repeating pattern of rally early in the Globex and crater later), daily DOWN (longs outperform shorts).
High outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening around +0.40% (short edge). $TRIN XMA pops to 0.84. As noted yesterday, this number tends to reverse quickly and the move from .78 to .84 in a day is further evidence. Plan your long-term decisions in advance so taking action will be easier.
Globex: The range of 33.75 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 48 points on a FALLING ATR of 52.91. Prior forecast around 48 points, actual 32.25
Trade Well,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.