The Daily Market Forecast... Lesson Day
Today’s Lesson: Prepare yourself more.
There are countless ways to beat the market. Your first challenge is finding a method that is in harmony with your personality, time commitment, finances, and goals. Once you find that, trading should be easy, right? Nope.
The second (and more difficult) challenge you’ll face is yourself. Impulsivity, impatience, need to be “right”, etc. There are countless ways to beat yourself, too!
One trick I’ve found very useful is mental preparation. Instead of getting up, brushing my teeth, downing a coffee and looking for trades, I’ve developed a morning routine that leaves me energized and focused. Mental preparation increases your confidence as well. Confident traders are good traders.
Find your own routine but to give you some ideas, here’s mine:
- Up at 5:30 am.
- Lights on in every room I’ll enter.
- Music on.
- Tidy up (make the bed, empty the sink, etc.)
- Drink 16 oz. of lemon infused water.
- 15 minutes of breathing exercises. Check out Wim Hof on YouTube.
- 30 minutes of cardio weight training.
- Launch trading platform
- Coffee as a reward!
Make your routine a habit and you’ll feel the difference personally and likely see the difference in your trading.
For Fri 211008 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: Price moved sideways in a wide range offering two trades, a small winner and a small loser.
Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mildly BULLISH. Stats are mixed. Depending on the employment report we could see a listless range-bound day leading into the holiday weekend. Looking for quality trades in either direction. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Thinking credit spreads might be easier today.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4414/4418. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4388.75/4400 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index: (+100/-100) EASES from +83 to +36 in a mostly bullish world (shorts SHOULD outperform longs but Non-Farm Payrolls will be the judge). China reopened with a +1.3% pop.
Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. Energy concerns in China likely to affect the already troubled supply chain issue.
Trends: 60 min RANGE, daily UP (no significant edge).
Low outside day: Win% and Stop% remain normal, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening around +0.13%. $TRIN XMA drops to 0.88. Long term outlook stays long.
Globex: The range of 21 (likely wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 36 points on a LEVELING ATR of 65.70. Prior forecast around 57 points, actual 35.
Trade Well,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.