The Daily Market Forecast... Lesson Day
Today’s Lesson: Persistence. Let’s use yesterday’s review chart from our trading team’s day session (above). This is a lesson that you’ll get more from if you VISUALIZE being there as we go along. Write down your honest answers.
- Their first trade was a long entry with a wide stop. The minimum recommended size is 3 contracts. How do you FEEL about that before you enter the order? The trade stopped out in minutes. How do you feel AFTER the loss?
- You’re expected to reverse your view and go short with the same risk. How do you FEEL about this next trade? And how do you feel as it goes against you nearly to your stop? Are you thinking positive or negative? The trade catches momentum and runs clean to the next level. 20-point winner. You get all your loss back and then some. How do you feel?
- You’re expected to reverse your view AGAIN and go long. A bit less risk. How do you feel? The trade takes a while to move up but offers 13 points. You end the morning early nicely profitable. How do you feel?
Why are we focusing on how you feel? Because your emotions will rule your trading if you let them. That’s not the kind of “rule-based” trading we want!
Here’s a simple fix. Losses are inevitable. Of course, we like to keep them small but what is small? The key is finding your “risk number.” This is the loss that doesn’t affect you either financially or psychologically. You simply don’t care about it. Within that framework you’ll continue to trade regardless of the prior outcome. No guarantees, but USUALLY, persistence pays off. For Tue 210928 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
For Wed 210929 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: Another great Globex session. One takeable trade running for 30+ points already, still open.
Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is bullish. Stats are mixed. Taking trades in either direction, especially reversals. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for SPXW credit spreads expiring today.
SPXW CPL changes: The prior level of 4440/4450 comes OFF and 4360/4365 is ADDED.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4343.50/4348. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4361/4374.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -29 to +21 with Asia weak and the western world bullish (modest short edge).
Catalysts: EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. Fed’s Powell speaks @ 11:45 (maybe Elizabeth Warren will heckle him…). Our debt ceiling. Evergrande’s bad debt. Renewed inflation fears.
Trends: 60 min UP, daily DOWN (shorts outperform longs).
Inside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening around +0.50% (short edge). $TRIN XMA dips to 0.78. Long term outlook: strategy says go to cash, protect it or go short. Trigger was the close below 0.80. NOTE: this tends to reverse quickly and a close above 0.80 swings back long.
Globex: The range of 33.50 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 48 points on a RISING ATR of 55.97. Prior forecast around 66 points, actual 71.50
Trade Well,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.