The Daily Market Forecast... Lesson Day
Today’s Lesson: Reframing
This is critical for your success at anything. Do you think about the positive outcome or the negative outcome? It makes a difference. You have a choice.
Looking at yesterday’s long suggestion on the chart above you’ll see…
- The trade triggered entry.
- The stop was touched (probably filled).
- Price moved in your direction for 15 points, but you sold at the precise bottom of the market.
What were you thinking?
“This strategy STINKS, the stops are too tight!”
OR
“This strategy is AMAZING, we picked the bottom of the market!”
Reframing is the act of taking a negative situation and finding good in it. You change your thoughts about it, which changes your beliefs and your emotions, your actions and ultimately your RESULTS. Really.
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For Wed 211013 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: No respect for the CPL last night… one full loser and one half loser.
Day Session Analysis: World sentiment is mixed. Stats are mixed. Earnings and CPI will let us know. Willing to trade either direction for now. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Looking for credit spread candidates.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4345.25/4349.75. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4335.25/4340.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -50 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (shorts should modestly outperform longs).
Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. 30-year bond auction @ 13:00. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. Earnings season starts with the big banks.
Trends: 60 min turning DOWN from an UP, daily DOWN (longs should outperform shorts).
Low outside day: Win% and Stop% remain normal, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening around +0.20%. $TRIN XMA up to 1.03. Long term outlook stays long.
Globex: The range of 30.50 (likely higher after CPI data) suggests a day session range around 43 points on a FALLING ATR of 57.55. Prior forecast around 57 points, actual 37.25.
Trade Well,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.