The Daily Market Forecast... How to Predict

Monday’s Results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Quick Tip: How to Predict

Prediction is imperfect. But there is a logical method to framing what action to take based on the likely outcomes. Let’s use a simple two-outcome example, a trade. Your trade plan should have a stop loss and a winning exit rule(s). Simplistically, you’ll either win or lose. 

Before you start your trading session play the “What if…” game. 

What if the trade fails? 

What if the trade wins? 

What are you going to do next? Wait for the next signal? Reverse direction? Take the same signal on a second attempt if available? Quit? 

It doesn’t matter if you win or lose. You should plan for the outcomes and know what to do. If your trade plan already has rules for what you do after each trade, you’re good. If not, you should do the research to determine the best action possible. 

How? Ask “What if…” questions like...

What if you don’t get filled? 

What if you get a partial fill? 

What if the internet goes down? 

What if the power goes out?

Think of as many as you can. Create rules, review every trade and document the results of each alternative. It won’t take long before you’ll have some real evidence which is the best for your strategy.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points:

Sell 3970.00 stop 3974.25. 

Buy 3902.00 stop 3896.25.

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. What’s more important in trading? Math or emotions? Learn how to change your unwanted behavior here.