The Daily Market Forecast
Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither suggested level triggered.
Quick Tip: How to Trade CPI
We’re in a Bear market. Inflation is high. Interest rates are rising. Recession is looming. You know all that and it’s not bullish.
There is a ton of money on the sidelines waiting to buy. They’re looking for a signal. Today’s CPI may be that signal. We could see a huge runup if the CPI number is favorable. If that happens you’ll see another Bear Market rally. The global economic conditions going forward do not suggest today’s possibly good CPI will signal a bottom has been formed.
The chart above shows the S&P Futures with the Globex session (overnight) shaded. Notice how every day in the past week buyers rallied the Globex and sold off the day session. Granted this is a small sample size to depend on but it is a trend. It’s repeating.
The volatility when CPI is released will soar. Spread will widen and it won’t be an easily tradable market. Better to wait for price action to settle down. This recent evidence strongly suggests that any runup will be met by violent selling. Get ready to short the rallies once it starts trending down.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DUMPS from +25 to -8 in a world of mixed sentiment. Historically higher closes from the open occurred 74% of the time. But for today, CPI will be the judge.
Catalysts: CPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 11:00. Chip stocks dumping. UK a mess.
Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Short 3713.50 stop 3719.25.
Buy 3501.25 stop 3497.50.
Trade Fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. Multiple strategies, software tools, teammates, and coaching. Learn why you should join our team here. For a personal consultation to assess fit (without selling) email me for an appointment: mike@thedailymarketforecast.