The Daily Market Forecast

For Thursday 210819 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Down market, very busy with 8 trades documented, 4 takeable offering 2 winners netting +23 points.

Day Session Analysis: Fed tapering coming soon. All world markets are bearish. Charts say a continuation down (or sell rallies). Stats say BUY the dips. Seems like a perfect environment for BB Rev. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%) but overall gains are very low. Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and HOLDING OFF on credit spread ladders due to extreme volatility and lack of directional bias.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4434/4440. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4406.5/4411.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) plummets from +14 to -86 with all major world markets very bearish (Contrarian Alert: solid LONG edge).

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Strong bearish reaction to FOMC minutes suggesting tapering bond purchases this year. Covid Delta beating vaccines. China’s proposed regulation of tech giants isn’t slowing.

Trends: 60 min DOWN, daily DOWN (LONG edge).

Chart: LOW outside day (LONG edge). Stat update shows LONGS far more productive than  SHORTS. Opening -0.70% (LONG edge). $TRIN XMA stable  at 1.11 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 51.75 suggests a day session range around 65 points on a SOARING ATR of 35.15. Prior forecast around 30 points, actual 59.Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.