The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210826 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Still range-bound. One takeable trade was a small loser.

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest a continued melt-up or range day. Stats are mixed. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. PREFER trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters and holding off on starting a ladder on the SPXW given the uncertainty tomorrow morning (Powell).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4492.75/4496. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4489.25/4490.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +7 to -50 with most major world markets bearish with volatility kicking up from yesterday (long edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show uptrends for CL & ES with a possible caution coming from the JY (trying to break out of a downtrend).

Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. China tech shares plummet (read: whipsaw). Any big moves are likely to be on hold for Powell’s speech tomorrow.

Trends: 60 min UP, daily UP (short edge).

Chart: Inside day (OK… a repeat of yesterday, 2 ticks below yesterday’s low but that’s wiggle room). Stats show both directions perform well with LONGS offering 40% more points. Opening flat AGAIN. $TRIN XMA easing down to 0.93 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 14 (likely higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 26 points on a RISING ATR of 33.17. Prior forecast around 20 points, actual 17.25.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.