The Daily Market Forecast

Today’s Lesson: Sequel to yesterday’s “Get a night job.” Normally I wouldn’t write about the same topic two days in a row, but this was too coincidental to pass up. 

The levels on the chart above were distributed to our team of traders yesterday at 5:15 PM ET. As you can see, price opened the session (light green vertical line) below our desired short level. This gives us the perfect Globex trading opportunity: Set/Forget. Go have dinner. Go to a movie. Go to bed early. Whatever you like!

At 8:15 the trade filled, went only 1 tick against and ran for 50+ points. You can’t get it all, but there is plenty to grab in a run that fast. For Thu 210930 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

For Fri 211001 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is firmly bearish, yet the S&P has bounced back to positive after a 50-point drop. Stats are mixed. Taking trades in either direction. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for SPXW credit spread opportunities once the pace of the day is established.   

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4310.75/4315. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4323/4327.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) DUMPS from ZERO to -50 in a world of bearish sentiment (longs outperform shorts). China & Hong Kong closed for holiday.

Catalysts: Personal Income @ 8:30. ISM MFG Index @ 10:00. Washington political gamesmanship over the debt ceiling is causing heartburn (such B.S. in that town). Inflation kicks up in Europe.

Trends: 60 min UP (reverse pattern of late with a deep dive earlier in repair now), daily DOWN (longs outperform shorts).

Low outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit.  Opening around +0.10% after a huge plunge (short edge). $TRIN XMA 0.89. Long term outlook is returning to “hold.”

Globex: The range of 51 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 65 points on a RISING ATR of 56.42. Prior forecast around 48 points, actual 79.25

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.