The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210902 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher, two takeable trades, one small loser and one still open with one target in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day. Jobless Claims will set the early trend. Not trading until that report is digested. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ladder credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4526.25/4528.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4526/4527.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +21 in a world of low volatility, mildly bullish sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.90. No obvious tells.

Catalysts: International Trade & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Waiting on tomorrow’s employment report, although today will give an early signal.

Trends: 60 min UP forming a WEDGE, daily UP starting a topping pattern (short edge).

Chart: LOW outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs CRUSH shorts earning 10X the profit. Opening +0.15%. $TRIN XMA up a bit at 0.99 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 16.25 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 30 points on a FALLING ATR of 30.98. Prior forecast around 30 points, actual 15.75.  

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.