The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210915 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is range-bound between congested volume levels. No takeable trades triggered.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment leans bearish and that means buy-the-dip. Stats mixed. The levels are congested for the open. Patience required. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium for credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4448.50/4453. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4446.75/4447.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) FADES from -29 to -43 in a world of bearish sentiment (long edge).

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. China’s growth cools substantially, energy prices continue rising.

Trends: 60 min RANGE, daily DOWN (no edge).

Chart: Inside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening flat (no edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 1.0 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 17 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 35 points on a RISING ATR of 37.51. Prior forecast around 35 points, actual 52. Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.