The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210830 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Very slow session but another new high. One takeable trade that stopped out.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & sentiment suggest a melt-up or range-bound day Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4504.25/4506.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4493.25/4496.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from zero to +29 in a mildly bullish world with low volatility (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.91, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.91. Globex charts show oil breaking a downtrend line and the S&P remaining flat, if oil leads the S&P should rise. Yen is flat saying nothing.

Catalysts: Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Nothing else obvious. Could be a slow pre-holiday week.

Trends: 60 min RANGE, daily UP (modest short edge).

Chart: High outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening flat. $TRIN XMA easing down to 0.96 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 12.50 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 26 points on a FALLING ATR of 30.42. Prior forecast around 38 points, actual 36.25.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.