The Daily Market Forecast
Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Another narrow range day when neither trade triggered.
Quick Tip: Outcome Bias
Imagine this: your strategy has a track record that while not proven to repeat in the future, is statistically sound historically. No curve fitting. Simple, logical rules that make sense.
You’re trading it and getting great results. Some days the strategy performs better than you, other days you do a little better. Expected. We’re human and we let discretion slip into our trading occasionally.
When you started trading this strategy you were a fearful of it not working. You overcame that fear by starting with very small risk. As you started winning more often and growing your account you felt fearless entering your first few trades every day.
On days when you started losing you quit after a few losses. On days when you started winning you quit after a few wins. Both rules sound logical. What they are doing, however, is protecting your remaining fear. And that fear comes from Outcome Bias.
If you were confident that over time, taking every trade, that you would be comfortably profitable, then the outcome of any one or series of trades is unimportant. What is important is your consistent application of your trade plan.
Curtis Faith, legendary Turtle trader puts it this way: “Good trading is not about being right, it is about trading right. If you want to be successful, you need to think of the long run and ignore the outcomes of individual trades.”
If you want the tools and techniques to change your behavior and catapult your trading results, click here for details.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -50 to +50 with most major world markets bullish (longs should outperform).
Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. Student Debt Relief is bullish for the Reddit crowd. SPACs are in trouble but that wasn’t a hard prediction, being Blind Pools with a money-back guarantee (read: overbought).
Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (in fast moving markets consider a wider stop and less size):
Sell 4196.75 stop 4200.75.
Buy 4141.00 stop 4135.50.
Trade Fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. Multiple strategies, software tools, teammates, and coaching. Learn why you should join our team here. For a personal consultation to assess fit (without selling) email me for an appointment: mike@thedailymarketforecast.