The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210825 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Still range-bound. Price whipsawed the CPL for two losers.

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest a continued melt-up or range day. Stats are mixed. The highest volume level has been whipsawed in two sessions now (yesterday and Globex last night). Leary of trading Volume Profile today.  Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). PREFER trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and HOPING for credit spread premium on the SPXW. Vacation day, anyone?

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4481.50/4484.00. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4482.50/4484 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and very low volatility (no edge).

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. Nothing new is happening while we wait for Powell on Friday.

Trends: 60 min RANGE (or maybe we can coin a new description… “pancake”), daily UP (modest short edge).

Chart: Inside day (OK… 3 ticks below yesterday’s low but really, we’re trading within a 11-point day session range). Stats show both directions perform well with LONGS offering 40% more points. Opening flat. $TRIN XMA easing down to 0.94 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 11.25 (possibly higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 20 points on a RISING ATR of 31.80. Prior forecast around 25 points, actual 11.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.