The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210917 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: No takeable trades.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed. The “melt-up” environment has become “melt-down.” Stats are mixed. Looking to take trades in either direction and letting shorts run further. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. VERY cautious with SPXW credit spreads due to Quad Witching.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4463/4469.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4457/4457.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -14 to +7. Improving? Not so fast. Asia rebounded from several days of selling, the western world sold off some. Mixed sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Quad Witching (volatility expected late in the day). 

Trends: 60 min DOWN, daily DOWN (long edge).

Chart: Inside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening -0.23% (modest long edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 0.99 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 24.25 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 40 points on a RISING ATR of 39.75. Prior forecast around 35 points, actual 43.25.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.