The Daily Market Forecast
Today’s Lesson: The Power of Review
Join me on Saturday morning @ 10:00 ET to watch as we review every trade taken in our trading room this week… S&P, Gold & Oil futures. Winners, losers, break-evens, all will be analyzed.
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For Thu 211028 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: No trades triggered yet in a narrow range-bound market.
Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed leaning bearish. Stats are mixed. Jobless Claims & GDP will determine the early trend. Willing to trade either direction under Alt1 stop movement UNLESS/UNTIL the Globex range increases plenty OR the expected move of the SPXW is wide. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using Vol Rev with filters (download the new Edge). Looking to establish a credit spread ladder for tomorrow’s expiration.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4564.75/4569. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4555.75/4556 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index: (+100/-100) LIFTS from -50 to -21 in a world of mixed somewhat bearish sentiment (longs should outperform shorts).
Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Earnings season continues to be a focus. AAPL & AMZN tonight.
Trends: 60 min UP (breaking out of a range), daily UP (forming a wedge, shorts should outperform longs).
Inside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening +0.30%. $TRIN XMA jumps to 1.14. Long term outlook stays long.
Globex: The range of 15.75 (likely higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 31 points on a FALLING ATR of 40.20. Prior forecast around 35 points, actual 33.00.
Trade Well,
Mike Siewruk
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