The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210903 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Trading modestly higher. One trade taken, still open, with two targets in the bag. 

Day Session Analysis: Drifting higher (almost daily) is unlikely to change without a big catalyst. Today’s Payrolls report is the key. A spike suggests the Fed may taper quicker, a drop suggests slower, and on target suggests we get over to Costco early for our Labor Day ribs before they’re out of stock. Not trading until that report is digested. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium to ADD to a nice credit spread ladder from yesterday.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4535/4540. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4532/4534 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.90, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.90. ES/CL trading in a range, JY trending up (if leading suggests a dip for ES/CL). 

Catalysts: Employment Situation @ 8:30. ISM Services Index @ 10:00. Payrolls high = Fed tapers quicker = market down, payrolls low = Fed tapers slower = market up.

Trends: 60 min RANGE, daily UP (modest short edge).

Chart: High outside day. Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening +0.15%. $TRIN XMA stable at 0.99 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 11.75 (likely higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 23 points on a FALLING ATR of 28.13. Prior forecast around 30 points, actual 21.25. Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.