The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 211007 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Thursday blues may be back. Two takeable trades, one loser and one small winner (which was the start of a great move up, but shaken out by our stop ☹)

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is BULLISH. Stats suggest SHORTS will perform SLIGHTLY better. Looking for quality trades in either direction. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with MORE new filters (download the new Edge). VERY cautious about credit spreads.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4309/4315. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4328.75/4330.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -92 to +83 with all major world markets very bullish (remember our contrarian alert yesterday?) Today: shorts SHOULD outperform longs but Jobless Claims will be the judge. China closed for holiday.

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Washington agrees (for now).

Trends: 60 min UP, daily UP (shorts outperform longs).

High outside day: Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening around +1.0%. $TRIN XMA 0.95. Long term outlook stays long.

Globex: The range of 42.75 (likely wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 57 points on a RISING ATR of 65.43. Prior forecast around 75 points, actual 77.  

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.