The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210907 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Drifting slowly down from the highs. Several congested levels. No trading over holiday.

Day Session Analysis: With no clear catalyst another melt-up or range-bound session is expected.  Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even.  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking (hard) for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4528.75/4531.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4531.25/4534 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to +7 with Asia very bullish and the western world mildly bearish (no edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.90. ES/CL/JY all trending down suggesting JY may reverse up.

Catalysts: No economic releases. Nothing big and new on the world stage. Ho-hum.

Trends: 60 min DOWN daily UP converting to a RANGE (long edge).

Chart: High outside day. Win/Stop% about the same, shorts delivered 20% more profit. Opening -0.23%. $TRIN XMA stable at 0.99 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 16 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 30 points on a FALLING ATR of 25.32. Prior forecast around 23 points, actual 20.75.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.