The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210910 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price is drifting up. No trades taken based on reward/risk. Two winners documented with a third trade open no targets hit yet.  

Day Session Analysis: The world flipped to a solid BULLISH sentiment. Stats point to shorts working better than longs, but both should be taken. Mindful that we’re opening in a congested area and likely will wait for Volume Profile entries. Friday (both sessions combined garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%).  Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium today.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4495/4501.50. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4501.75/4503 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -57 to +64 with all major world markets soundly bullish (short edge).

Correlations: S&P / Oil (CL) = +.89, S&P / Yen (JY) = -.82. Teammate Thomas B. observes that stocks usually follow oil (sometimes with a delay) but NOT the other way around. No tells on the charts today.

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Deutsche Bank is added to the “equities are high” warning list.

Trends: 60 min UP, daily DOWN (short edge).

Chart: Inside day. Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening +0.40% (short edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 0.96 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 25.25 (possibly wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 40 points on a RISING ATR of 28.78. Prior forecast around 40 points, actual 41.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.