The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210916 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price traded in a 15-point range and offered one takeable trade that ended a small loser. “Thursday Filter” saved you.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment is mixed. Traditional chart analysis says bearish. Stats mixed, leaning bullish. Thursday (both sessions combined garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters. Looking for attractive SPXW premium for credit spreads ladders.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4438.50/4445.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4459.25/4460.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -14 in a world of very mixed sentiment. Asia trending down, Europe trending up, S&P Futures trending down (modest long edge).

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index & Retail Sales @ 8:30. Fear over sustained higher energy prices stokes inflation outlook. China drags Asia lower again.

Trends: 60 min DOWN, daily DOWN (long edge).

Chart: Inside day: Win/Stop% about the same, longs delivered 40% more profit. Opening -0.15% (modest long edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 0.96 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 15.50 (LIKELY wider by the open) suggests a day session range around 35 points on a RISING ATR of 39.21. Prior forecast around 35 points, actual 50.25. The trend has been wider than expected in the day session. Likely because of key economic news keeping the Globex range lower.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.